Ausblick für Wandelanleihen

Im Rahmen der starken Markterholung in den letzten 12 Monaten konnten vor allem Wandelanleihen profitieren. Seit Anfang 2009 nimmt das Interesse an der Assetklasse Wandelanleihen wieder stärker zu, da Wandelanleihen über die kommenden 12 Monate attraktive Renditepotenziale bieten. Lombard Odier Investment Managers | 17.03.2010 08:43 Uhr
Archiv-Beitrag: Dieser Artikel ist älter als ein Jahr.

“What investors should take into consideration when investing in convertibles in the current cyclical environment?”

With both the credit and equity markets rebounding strongly over the past 12 months, the convertible asset class benefited disproportionately, fuelling further demand especially from ‘outright investors’ (investors that buy and hold convertible bonds).In early 2009, many investors started to look at the asset class again, bringing back to life a market that is expected to continue to provide enticing opportunities over the next 12 months.

The market outlook for 2010 is characterised by higher-than-usual levels of uncertainty.

After a very strong rally in equities from Q2 2009, the next 12 months could well results in some sideways corrective behaviour, as investors grapple with potential policy shifts. In the government bond space, markets will have to live with the prospect of rate hikes, a decline in the current abundant liquidity, and the lack of support from quantitative easing buying. Demand for corporate credit is expected to remain high, although returns in 2010 will not match those of 2009.

In such an uncertain environment, the attractiveness of convertible bonds and particularly of those with asymmetrical profiles (“balanced convertibles”) is very clear. The heightened volatility since the beginning of the year highlights the downside protection of convertible bonds, while their embedded option enables participation in any equity rallies. Over time, convertible bonds thus have a better return-adjusted-to-risk ratio than equities (as proven by our LOF Convertible bond fund’s performance over 3 and 5 years). Moreover, adding convertible bonds to a balanced portfolio of shares and bonds typically increases returns while reducing volatility.

In our view, the following trends will define the convertible bond market over the coming year:

  • Selection: If 2009 can be described as a year of Beta, when investors in the right asset classes (high yield or distressed names for example) benefited overwhelmingly, then 2010 will be the year of Alpha in our view. The right selection of issuer (and underlying share) should be key in the performance of outright fund managers. The analysis of companies´ balance-sheets´ strength and valuation of growth potential in such an environment is paramount. We anticipate that both credit gains and selective equity exposure will contribute to the performance of balanced convertible bond funds in 2010.

  • Asia-Pacific: There is clear optimism for the region’s convertible market for the coming months, in view of recent fund launches and a healthy pipeline of potential issues. As in other regions, a heavy refinancing calendar should be a plus point for convertible bond issuance. The performance of Asian convertible bonds is expected to be strong, as they currently appear cheaper than their European and US counterparts and the growth potential of the region is superior. Note that in an environment of higher interest rates and positive equity markets, convertible bonds will benefit through more issuance and improved demand.

  • High-yield vs. Investment-grade convertible bonds: Although high-yield convertibles clearly outperformed the rest of the asset class in 2009, some interesting opportunities remain in all regions. The investment grade names (approximately half the market in value terms) obviously offer more protection to investors and will benefit if new issuance fails to match the asset class’ redemption schedule.

  • Types of investors: After being dominated by hedged investors in previous years, the convertible bond asset class is today 60% held by outright investors (as estimated by Barclays Capital based on activity levels). Moreover, hedged investors are using much lower leverage at present (estimated between 2 and 2.5x by the hedge-fund community, compared to 6x prior to the crisis). The greater availability of leverage and low financing costs should lead certain investors to use higher levels of leverage in 2010.

    A greater balance between investor types is seen by many as a structural positive for the convertible market, guarding it against the level of dislocation experienced in Q4 2008. Both outright and hedge investors are attracting new capital to the asset class. This is very good news, although a dynamic new market will be needed, as valuations may become more stretched as a result (particularly for the better rated convertible bonds).

  • Liquidity: Convertible market activity picked up in Q2 2009, and has stayed high since then. The liquidity trend is likely to remain positive in 2010, but will take a bit more time to reach the levels of a few years ago. This is because the number of very large blue-chip convertible bonds is smaller and because there are fewer active dealers, prop desks and hedge funds.

  • M&A activity: Although not priced-into most convertible bonds, a takeover protection value exists. Convertibles bonds with strong takeover protection features will undoubtedly increase in value in 2010. The catalyst of such a pick-up in value will obviously be a return of strong M&A activity.

In summary, 2010 is expected to be another good year for convertible bonds, although the drivers of performance should shift from beta to alpha. Active security selection will be of utmost importance and investors should keep an eagle eye on the level of issuance throughout the year.

Performanceergebnisse der Vergangenheit lassen keine Rückschlüsse auf die zukünftige Entwicklung eines Investmentfonds oder Wertpapiers zu. Wert und Rendite einer Anlage in Fonds oder Wertpapieren können steigen oder fallen. Anleger können gegebenenfalls nur weniger als das investierte Kapital ausgezahlt bekommen. Auch Währungsschwankungen können das Investment beeinflussen. Beachten Sie die Vorschriften für Werbung und Angebot von Anteilen im InvFG 2011 §128 ff. Die Informationen auf www.e-fundresearch.com repräsentieren keine Empfehlungen für den Kauf, Verkauf oder das Halten von Wertpapieren, Fonds oder sonstigen Vermögensgegenständen. Die Informationen des Internetauftritts der e-fundresearch.com AG wurden sorgfältig erstellt. Dennoch kann es zu unbeabsichtigt fehlerhaften Darstellungen kommen. Eine Haftung oder Garantie für die Aktualität, Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit der zur Verfügung gestellten Informationen kann daher nicht übernommen werden. Gleiches gilt auch für alle anderen Websites, auf die mittels Hyperlink verwiesen wird. Die e-fundresearch.com AG lehnt jegliche Haftung für unmittelbare, konkrete oder sonstige Schäden ab, die im Zusammenhang mit den angebotenen oder sonstigen verfügbaren Informationen entstehen. Das NewsCenter ist eine kostenpflichtige Sonderwerbeform der e-fundresearch.com AG für Asset Management Unternehmen. Copyright und ausschließliche inhaltliche Verantwortung liegt beim Asset Management Unternehmen als Nutzer der NewsCenter Sonderwerbeform. Alle NewsCenter Meldungen stellen Presseinformationen oder Marketingmitteilungen dar.
Klimabewusste Website

AXA Investment Managers unterstützt e-fundresearch.com auf dem Weg zur Klimaneutralität. Erfahren Sie mehr.

Melden Sie sich für den kostenlosen Newsletter an

Regelmäßige Updates über die wichtigsten Markt- und Branchenentwicklungen mit starkem Fokus auf die Fondsbranche der DACH-Region.

Der Newsletter ist selbstverständlich kostenlos und kann jederzeit abbestellt werden.