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China – a case of steep decline Chinese economic activity numbers have shown the steepest decline in growth momentum in recent weeks. This dynamic is also visible in the economic surprise index which registered a swing of nearly 170 pts within a space of six weeks. Looking at the specific data points, the weakness has been broad-based with both internal and external sector-based indicators showing significant loss of growth momentum.
Chinese authorities have responded to weak March data with meaningful new policy easing including a 100 bps reduction in banks’ Required Reserve Ratio (RRR). Furthermore, there were media reports that some potentially very important initiatives are under consideration. These include the recapitalization of policy banks, new rules on private/public partnership projects, and the possibility of an LTRO-type operation to support loan growth and increase the banking sector’s incentives to buy local government debt.
So far, FX remains untouched as a policy stimulus tool and the heavy lifting is being done by tangible monetary policy shifts. However increasing signs of capital outflows resulting in outright decline in foreign reserves is clearly starting to attract attention both in policy and market circles as it complicates the degrees-of-freedom available to the authorities in their quest to stabilize growth dynamics.
US – stuck in negative territory
Weather, port strikes and temporary drags emanating from energy sector issues have been blamed for the negative performance of US data in recent months. The US Economic Surprise Index confirms this trend with a reading of -56 compared to +40 in late-December. More importantly, there are still no signs of a sustained improvement in US data flow which, not surprisingly, is putting the focus back on Fed given its recent move towards a more data-dependent policy profile.
Looking ahead, we believe that problems in the energy sector (especially reduction in oil production activity and capex) will be important growth-influencing dynamics. In addition, the sharp USD rally witnessed over the last few months is also starting to show up in manufacturing sentiment and credit deployment data. In our view this will also be an important factor in shaping US growth dynamics going forward. On the positive side, US consumer confidence is high and strong auto sales numbers continue to point towards buoyant consumption patterns going forward.
Eurozone – still positive but rolling over
The positive shift in European data since the start of the year has been a key macro theme. However, latest data prints show that momentum is rolling over here as well with a series of disappointing business survey prints. Although still in positive territory, the surprise index has fallen from a high of 64.9 in late-March to 17.4. Improvement in Eurozone economic dynamics has been an important theme over the last few months especially given the backdrop of the ECB’s strong QE programme unveiled in January and the steep fall in oil prices. Indeed, we think that watching out for further signs of a continued shift in momentum will be important given implications for both monetary policy and asset prices.
Conclusions – fundamental differentiation remains in place
Despite the deterioration in global growth momentum, there are a number of positive factors which can help turn the tide in coming months. First, temporary drags impacting the US should start to weaken and support from the aggressive policy stimulus from China should also start to make its presence felt. That said, the deterioration during Q1 has been greater than expected and a strong rebound in upcoming high frequency data-points is needed to give comfort to the still solid annual global growth expectations. Turning to markets, the underlying theme of fundamental differentiation remains firmly intact with various risky asset markets reacting to different risk factors (e.g., Chinese equities responding positively to stimulus efforts, US bond markets pricing likelihood of a later lift-off etc). Overall, we continue to think that a highly fundamentally-differentiated macro environment is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
Salman Ahmed, Global Strategist, Lombard Odier Asset Management
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