Apple Watch: Top oder Flop?

In diesem Monat startet der Vertrieb der Apple Watch - droht dem Produkt ein ähnlich schlechtes Schicksal wie der Google Glass? Bolko Hohaus, Manager des LO FUNDS - TECHNOLOGY, teilt seine Einschätzungen. Lombard Odier Investment Managers | 24.04.2015 10:11 Uhr
Bolko Hohaus, LO FUNDS - TECHNOLOGY
Bolko Hohaus, LO FUNDS - TECHNOLOGY
Archiv-Beitrag: Dieser Artikel ist älter als ein Jahr.

This is the month when finally the Apple Watch gets launched. The product – officially announced in autumn last year – is seen by many as the first major technology wearable on the market. This is despite companies such as Swatch rightly claiming to have had technology incorporated in their watches before.

The last well-touted product launch of a wearable was Google Glass. However, that project was stopped recently as it hit a lot of resistance due to privacy issues and generated little consumer interest. This may be because users looked a bit geeky wearing the device or may even have been thrown out of restaurants for wearing it.

What do we now think about the Apple Watch? Will it be a similar flop to Google Glass?

While conducting our due diligence on the product and interviewing potential users, we noticed some very interesting trends. First of all, there is a group of Apple fans that behave a bit like a cult. They state that “we buy any Apple product as Apple is the greatest in the world”. That group probably only accounts for afew per cent of the iPhone user base. However, as the total base is estimated to be 350 million users, a few per cent could add up to a significant number.

Leaving that group aside, the real surprise is that the older the people we talk to, the more interest we see. This is not because you can read your latest email on your watch without having to get your phone out of your pocket – this is more for those who by now have developed a little bit of attention deficit if their phones are not buzzing. Nor is it because the watch opens your BMW or Mercedes automatically while you are approaching it; you no longer have to find those keys that are never where they should be, which is, of course, a nice add-on feature.

No, the key features for the people we talked to are the healthcare applications: measuring blood pressure, reminding you to take a particular pill, counting how many steps you take, and alerting the emergency services if you stop moving are the killer applications mentioned. Hence, we can only answer our introductory question once we have seen those apps and verified that they really work. Apple has intentionally left some time between the product announcement and its launch to give developers time to write really good applications.

However, we are highly doubtful that version 1.0 of the watch will bring those killer applications. In that sense, we are wary of the higher Street estimates for the number of Apple watches estimated to be sold in year one. However, we think that a new category has been born.

Apparently, the company has halved its initial production numbers for the watch. This may be due to technica l issues but could also be an attempt to keep supply tight in order to increase the longer-term demand for a “hot” product.

Now for a few facts. Depending on the type of band it uses, the Apple Watch will be priced between USD 549 and USD 1,049. There will also be a Sports Watch at USD 349 and a high-end edition for USD 10,000 (yes, ten thousand!).

The official launch date is 24 April with pre-orders being taken two weeks before. We will stay tuned for further details. The sector continues to produce excitement due to its ongoing innovation.

Technology Sector Outlook

In the first weeks of 2015, we have seen the big trade of last year – buying in PC-related names – starting to reverse as PC sweaken again. Apple shares, on the other hand, shot up in Q1 on the back of its success in its core product, the iPhone 6. Most importantly, we’ve also seen encouraging signs in the newer technology names. In general, they’re reporting very healthy numbers, in contrast to many of the incumbents.

With technology increasingly used as a strategic weapon and IT spending beginning to tick up, we are confident that the outlook for the Fund is bright.

Bolko Hohaus, LO FUNDS - TECHNOLOGY

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