Review of global markets

Im Folgenden stellt Ihnen Barings Asset Management einen Rückblick auf die globalen Märkte in der vergangen Woche zur Verfügung. Ebenso finden Sie auch einen Rückblick auf das Jahr 2010 in dieser Nachricht. Barings | 07.01.2011 20:35 Uhr
Archiv-Beitrag: Dieser Artikel ist älter als ein Jahr.
UK weather limits construction and services The UK purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector reached 58.3 in December, up from 57.5 in November, a 16-year high. (A figure above 50 means that manufacturing activity expanded.) The report revealed that output, export orders and employment all rose rapidly. By contrast, the services sector PMI slipped to 49.7 in December from 53 in November, the first contraction since April 2009. Britain’s construction sector also contracted in December. The PMIs for services and construction are likely to have been hit by the coldest December since records began and, therefore, some rebound over the coming months is expected. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s quarterly Credit Trends report showed that a balance of 41% of lenders said that demand for mortgages fell rather than rose in the last quarter of 2010. Default rates on mortgages were little changed in the fourth quarter. Lending to companies continued to show diverging trends, with banks stabilising the rates charged on loans to large and mid-sized private non-financial companies while raising rates for the smallest businesses. Overall, banks reported that demand for credit from businesses was broadly unchanged in the fourth quarter but was expected to increase early in 2011. Also, lenders reported that for the third consecutive quarter more credit had been made available to small businesses. Separately, M4 money – which includes notes and coins in circulation, deposits and shorter-term bonds – excluding the financial sector rose at a 3.5% annualised rate in the three months to November, faster than earlier in the year but well below the 6-9% pace that the Bank had hoped it could achieve through its £200bn of cash injections into the economy through quantitative easing.

Euroland manufacturing growth accelerates

A composite index based on a survey of Euroland’s purchasing managers in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in December was revised up slightly to 55.5. Germany’s composite index of both sectors rose to the highest since June 2006. The weaker Euro (which has depreciated 8% against the Dollar over the past year) almost certainly boosted global demand for German industrial products with orders expanding by 5.2% in November following a 1.6% rise in October. Orders from countries outside Euroland were up almost 15% in the month. With France, Germany helped drive higher the European Commission’s broad-based economic sentiment Index for the seventh consecutive month in December - the region’s index rose 1.2 points to 106.2, its highest level in three years and well above its long-term average of 100. Sentiment in nations in the “periphery”, such as Greece fell. Separately, European Central Bank’s (ECB) data showed that banks in the Euro area increased their lending to companies in November by 0.2%, reversing a decline the previous month. Loansto companies have been higher in three out of the past four months. Preliminary estimates by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical unit, showed that Euroland inflation rose to an annual rate of 2.2% in December, above the ECB’s 2% target for the first time in more than two years.

Meanwhile, the Spanish government said that China is prepared to buy €6bn ($7.9bn) of Spanish government bonds as part of its commitment to help the Euro area out of its sovereign debt crisis. For its part, the ECB increased its bond purchases under its securities market programme to €1.1bn ($1.4bn) in the week to December 24 from €603m the previous week. The increase indicates that the Euro’s monetary guardian remains wary of an escalation of the debt crisis in Euroland. On other news, the small Baltic state of Estonia became the 17th Euroland country on January 1.

FOMC to maintain QE2 as recovery continues

According to minutes of the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, policymakers indicated that it was too early to consider scaling back their plan to buy a total of $600bn in longdated Treasury bonds (QE2) by the end of June, in spite of the acceleration in the US economic recovery. Meanwhile, the latest economic reports and data underlined the economy’s rapid recovery. The ADP said that US businesses added 297,000 jobs in December, up from a revised 92,000 in November and the 11th straight month of expansion. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) purchasing manager’s index for manufacturing rose to 57 from 56.6 in November. The production component of the survey saw the strongest gain, rising to 60.7 from 55 in November, while new orders rose to 60.9, the highest level since May. The Chicago purchasing manager’s index – a measure of manufacturing activity in the Midwest – soared from 62.5 to 68.6, the highest level since the late 1980s. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 57.1 in December from 55 in November and was better than had been expected. The ISM non-manufacturing measures of new orders and business activity increased to the highest levels since August 2005. Separate Commerce Department data showed that US construction spending rose 0.4% in November following a 0.7% rise in October. Less positive was the Case-Shiller index which revealed that house prices dropped by 1.3% between September and October, the fourth consecutive month in which prices have fallen. The Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence declined to 52.5 in December from a revised reading of 54.3 in November.

Japan debt issuance capped at $535bn

In Japan, the Cabinet capped debt issuance for fiscal year 2011 at just below the ¥44,300bn ($535bn) expected for the current fiscal year, which runs to the end of March. Gross state debt is set to soar to more than 200% of GDP while new bond issuance will outstrip tax revenues for a third year in a row. While Japan faces growing debt levels, it has little near-term difficulty in funding its deficit, with interest rates still low and demand for government bonds robust. Separately, the nation’s Financial Services Agency will introduce rules next fiscal year to prohibit any investor from receiving shares in a new issue if they short company stocks during the period between the announcement of an offering and its pricing. The latest move from the regulator comes amid complaints from some investors of rampant short selling by funds with access to inside information before a new share issue has been announced.

Emerging market news

On December 25 the People’s Bank of China announced a 0.25% rise in China’s one-year base lending and deposit rates, taking the lending rate to 5.81% and the deposit rate to 2.75%. In a statement, the government said that it would shift from a “moderately loose” monetary policy to a “prudent” monetary stance in 2011. The rate increase, the second in just over two months, is an attempt to curb the nation’s inflation. Meanwhile, China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell in December to 53.9 from 55.2 in November, the first slowdown in growth in five months. The report also showed that manufacturers’ input costs rose at a slower pace.

Elsewhere, several emerging nations’ central banks are undertaking measures to limit currency movements and asset price bubbles. In December, Taiwan’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate for the third time in 2010 and unveiled fresh measures amid volatile capital flows. (The Taiwan Dollar reached a 13-year high vis-à-vis the US Dollar in December as investors took advantage of the gap between low interest rates in advanced economies and rising rates in Asia.) South Korea will significantly reduce limits on banks’ holdings of exchange derivatives. Brazil’s central bank said that it would impose reserve requirements on domestic banks’ foreign exchange positions.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that it may have to keep raising interest rates to combat India’s persistent inflationary pressures. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry said that the nation’s food prices rose at an annual rate of 18.32% in the week to December 25. The IMF board expects inflation of between 8.5% and 10.5% over the next two years, far exceeding the RBI’s goal of between 4% and 4.5%. The IMF forecasts India’s economy to grow 8.75% in the fiscal year ending March 31, and 8% the following year.

Company news

Retail Metrics, which tracks monthly US retail sales data, said that its index of same-store sales data in December rose 3.2 % against a year ago, less than had been expected. Retail Metrics’ index for the two holiday shopping months of November and December rose 4.1% year-on-year, the most robust growth in four years. Several retailers, such as Gap and American Eagle reported that sales in December had weakened after the strong performance in November. Upmarket retailers, including Nordstrom and Saks continued to outperform the rest of the sector.

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