Weekly Review of Global Markets

Im Folgenden stellt Ihnen Barings Asset Management einen Rückblick auf die globalen Märkte in der vergangenen Woche zur Verfügung. Erfahren Sie mehr zu den steigenden Commoditiy Preisen, der Abstufung der UK Wirtschaft durch das IMF, dem Gold Preis oder auch China´s Handels-Defizit hier: Barings | 18.04.2011 08:49 Uhr
Archiv-Beitrag: Dieser Artikel ist älter als ein Jahr.

* IMF downgrades UK economic outlook and deems fiscal consolidation "necessary"

* German wholesale prices see sharpest rise since 1981

* Rising commodity prices push US import prices higher

* Gold price rises to US$1476

* China records its first trade deficit since 2004 in Q1 2011 as value of imports climb

* Banco do Brasil announces that it is in advanced talks to buy Eurobank

IMF downgrades outlook for Britain

In its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the UK had a “strong” fiscal framework but conceded that fiscal consolidation was “necessary”. The IMF forecast growth of 1.7% in the UK this year, 0.3% lower than its November forecast. Next year’s growth forecast was unchanged at 2.3%.

Meanwhile, Britain’s trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to £2.4bn in February, from £3.9bn in January. Total exports rose by 1.3% while imports fell 2.2%. Exports to the European Union (EU) – the UK’s single largest trading partner – fell by 4.4% and exports to non-EU member states posted a 7.6% gain.

In other news, unemployment fell by 17,000 to 2.48m in the three months to February, the first decline since September. The jobless rate was 7.8% of the workforce, a fall of 0.1% compared with the previous quarter. Average earnings, including bonuses, rose by an annual 2% in December to February, compared with 2.3% in the three months to January.

The latest inflation data was more mixed. The Office for National Statistics reported that input prices – the price of raw materials – rose by 3.7% in March, mainly reflecting the rise in crude oil prices. The cost of finished goods rose a higher-than-expected 0.9% in March and was 5.4% higher year-on-year. Core output price inflation, which excludes food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum, rose by 0.4% on the month while year-on-year it eased to 3.0%. It was the second successive decline in the year-on-year measure. Meanwhile, retail price inflation in March fell to 5.3% while annual CPI fell to 4% from 4.4% in February. The unexpected drop in inflation was the first decline since last July.

The British Retail Consortium’s monthly survey for March showed that total high street sales fell 1.9% from a year earlier. Sterling fell to its lowest level against the Euro in almost six months and yields on five-year government bonds showed their biggest decline in two years (and prices rose) on expectations that interest rate rises would be postponed.

Prices rise in Germany and France

This week the Federal Statistics Office announced that German wholesale-price inflation in March rose by 10.9% from a year earlier, the sharpest increase since October 1981, following an annual increase of 10.8% in February. In the month, prices rose 1.3%. In France, statistics office Insee said that French consumer prices, calculated using a harmonized European Union method, rose a higher-than-expected 2.2% in March compared to 12 months earlier, after rising 1.8% in February. Prices rose 0.9% between February and March, the most since 1996.

Separately, the IMF said that Germany is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2011 and 2.1% in 2012 and France will expand 1.6% this year and 1.8% next year. The IMF projected that Portugal would be the only developed country to suffer a recession next year, with output declining by 0.5% after a fall of 1.5% in 2011. Ireland is predicted to grow by 0.5% this year while Greece’s economy is expected to contract by 3%. For his part, Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou’s said this week that Greece’s output should start expanding in the third or fourth quarter. The Minister warned that Greece needs time to convince international investors about the government’s budget reform programme and it may not be able to return to financial markets next year as planned. Greece’s budget plans are fully funded this year but it will have to raise between €25bn-€30bn in 2012.

Commodity price hikes lift US import prices

This week’s reports and statistics were impacted by rising commodity costs. A Labour Department report showed that producer prices rose by a smaller-than-expected 0.7% in March, following February’s 1.6% surge on the back of higher fuel and food prices. Core prices, which exclude fuel and food, rose 0.3% in March after rising 0.2% in February. The Labour Department said that import prices in March rose 2.7% - the fastest pace since June 2009 - in the wake of higher commodity prices.

Elsewhere, the Newport Commerce Department said that US retail sales rose more slowly than expected in March as higher petrol prices sapped spending on other items. A separate report showed that the US trade deficit in February fell 2.6% to US$45.8bn from an upwardly-revised US$47bn in January. Imports fell 1.7% as demand dropped for cars and industrial supplies. Petroleum imports fell 4.4% as a drop in volume offset the effect of rising oil prices. The trade gap with China decreased 19.3% to $18.8bn.

Meanwhile, the US central bank said in its Beige Book survey for March that economic activity improved across most of the 12 districts, with manufacturers leading gains. Wage pressures were “weak or subdued” in most districts and businesses reported upward pressure on prices due to higher commodity costs, particularly for energy and raw materials.

Separate Commerce Department figures showed that sales at US wholesalers fell 0.8% in February following January’s revised 3.3% gain. Inventories rose 1%, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month. The ratio of inventories to sales, a measure of how many months it would take to sell all stocks at the current sales pace, rose to 1.16 in February from 1.14 in January. Meanwhile, small business owners were more pessimistic in March as they braced for a slowdown in the economy.

In other news, the IMF said that the USA lacks a “credible strategy” to stabilise its mounting public debt. The IMF said that “…more sizeable reductions in medium-term deficits are needed and will require broader reforms, including to social security and taxation.” The latest warning was delivered as US President Barack Obama unveiled plans to cut US$4,000bn from deficits in the next 12 years through a mixture of spending cuts and tax increases. The House of Representatives passed a last-minute budget deal at the end of last week to cut US$38bn in spending despite a significant protest vote by conservative Republicans who said that the measure did not go far enough to dent the federal deficit, which this year is estimated at 10.9% of GDP.

Price of gold reaches $1476

The International Energy Agency reported this week that Saudi Arabia increased its oil output in response to Libya’s crisis by fewer than 9m barrels per day in March, lower than had been estimated. Turmoil in Libya has taken more than 1m barrels per day off the market, leading to an overall fall in production among OPEC’s 12 members of 890,000 barrels per day between February and March. Separately, the price of gold hit a nominal all-time high of $1,476.21 an ounce during the week, up 28.4% over the previous year.

Emerging market news

China’s trade deficit stood at US$1.02bn in the first quarter of the year – its first deficit since 2004 of $1.02bn in the first quarter. The value of imports rose by 32.6% in the quarter on a year-on-year basis. A late surge in exports – which rose 35.8% on an annual basis in March – boosted the trade balance narrowly into positive territory for March, with a US$140m surplus. The surplus signals strong global demand in spite of the Japanese earthquake and high global oil prices.

In South Korea, GDP grew by 1.5% during the first quarter, boosted by overseas shipments which jumped 30.3% to a record-high of $48.6 billion in March. GDP is projected to expand 4.5% this year, 0.2% lower than the central bank’s forecast in December (following 6.2% growth in 2010). The outlook for growth in 2012 was unchanged at 4.8%. The Bank of Korea said that consumer prices are expected to increase 3.9% in 2011, faster than the previous estimate of 3.5%. Despite this, the Bank kept South Korea’s benchmark rate unchanged at 3%. In stark contrast, the central bank in Chile moved to raise rates by 0.5% to 4.5%, the tenth stuck increase in 11 months.

Separately, the IMF recommended that South Africa’s central bank keep interest rates low as the economy’s recovery will not be strong enough to reverse job losses since 2009. In its World Economic Outlook report, growth in Africa’s biggest economy is projected to reach 3.5% in 2011 and 3.8% next year, little changed from estimates published in January. Inflation is expected to average 4.9% this year and 5.8% in 2012.

Elsewhere, India’s industrial production grew by a slower-thanexpected 3.6% in February, reflecting a significant slowdown in investment in the country. Capital goods output, seen as a proxy for investment, was minus 18.4% year-on-year, dragging industrial production below the 5% range that had been forecast.

Company news

This week Banco do Brasil, Brazil’s biggest bank by assets and profits, revealed that it was in advanced talks to buy Eurobank, a regional US lender based in Miami, for an undisclosed amount. Acquiring the bank, which has three branches in Florida, would give Banco do Brasil a vital foothold in the US market, as well as access to the state’s Latin American residents. Banco do Brasil would be the first in the country’s history to acquire a US retail bank.

Separately, Banesto, the Spanish bank controlled by Santander, reported that net profits in the first three months of the year fell 20% from in the same period in 2010. The Spanish lender continued to struggle with squeezed margins and a sluggish domestic economy. The bank’s bad and doubtful loan ratio rose to 4.15% of assets, up from 3.12% a year earlier – with the problem concentrated on property developers. Spain’s financial sector has been in turmoil following the collapse of the domestic housing bubble four years ago and the start of the global financial crisis the following year.

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