Weekly Review of Global Markets

Im Folgenden stellt Ihnen Barings Asset Management einen Rückblick auf die globalen Märkte in der vergangenen Woche zur Verfügung. Erfahren Sie mehr zur US Wirtschaft, der Bank von Japan, Inflation in einigen Emerging Economies, dem UK Lohn-Wachstum und weitere Themen hier: Barings | 20.06.2011 09:17 Uhr
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* UK wages growth falls as outlook for inflation improves

* Greek 10-year bond yields exceed 17%, becomes lowest-rated sovereign in the world

* US economic data mixed

* Bank of Japan leaves monetary policy unchanged

* Inflation persists in several emerging economies, including a 5.5% rise in China´s CPI

UK inflation expectations wane and unemployment falls

The latest outlook for UK inflation was encouraging. The quarterly survey of inflation expectations from the Bank of England showed that although, on average, respondents expect medium-term inflation to be well above the UK central bank’s 2.0% target, the margin above target is likely to be smaller than had been expected in February. The Office for National Statistics also reported that the price of goods leaving the factory gate rose by 0.2% in May from April, the smallest monthly rise since August 2010. Year-on-year prices rose 5.3% from 5.5% the previous month. Input prices – the costs manufacturers pay for raw materials – fell by 2.0% in May, the biggest monthly drop since April 2009.

Also favourable was a report which showed that UK unemployment fell by 88,000 to 2.43m in the three months to April, the largest drop for a decade and the lowest level for nearly two years. The unemployment rate in May was 7.7% of the workforce, unchanged from the previous month but down 0.3% on the quarter. Inflation appears not to have impacted wage growth - average earnings, including bonuses, increased by an annual 1.8% in the three months to April, down from 2.4% in the three months to March. Excluding bonuses, the figure was 2%, down from 2.1%. The latest retail sales figures disappointed. Sales volumes dropped by 1.6% in May, well below April’s 1.2%. In the three months to May sales fell 0.1% compared with the previous three months. Quarter-on-quarter, sales have been falling in six out of the past seven months. On other news, the Council for Mortgage Lenders said that the number of loans granted to purchase housing in April totalled 40,900, up 8% from March. A separate report showed that Britain’s housing market softened further in May everywhere but in London, with anecdotal evidence from surveyors suggesting that concerns about the economy and the lack of mortgage finance are weighing on demand.

European bond yields soar to near-record highs

Trading on European bond markets was volatile this week as negotiations continued over financial aid to “peripheral” Euroland nations. Greek 10-year bond yields jumped to more than 17% (and prices fell) for the second time this year while Portuguese and Irish 10-year bond yields hit Euro-era highs of 10.66% and 11.34%, respectively. Spanish government bond yields jumped to 5.5%, the highest since September 2000. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to pay Greece its €12bn ($17bn) aid tranche in July even if Euroland leaders do not agree on a new €120bn Greek bailout. The decision circumvents a Greek default (although the loans are conditional on the Greek parliament backing sweeping austerity measures.) In the meantime, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut Greece’s long-term sovereign credit rating by three notches to triple C, making Greece the lowest-rated sovereign in the world. Separately, Ireland’s Finance Minister Michael Noonan revived a previous demand that European banks take heavy losses on their holdings of senior bonds (called “haircuts”) at Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide in order to lessen the cost of Ireland’s bank rescue. (The two nationalised banks are to be merged and wound down over 10 years).

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to oppose using private-sector losses to reduce sovereign debt loads. In spite of heightened uncertainty on the bond markets, Spain successfully sold €5.4bn in 12- and 18-month Treasury bills at a slightly higher cost than it borrowed the previous month but comfortably above the minimum €4.5bn it had aimed to auction. The Bank of Spain said that the amount Spanish banks borrowed directly from the ECB rose from €42bn in April to €53bn ($76.5bn) in May. Businesses in the region’s fourth-largest economy prefer to borrow more from the central bank directly rather than access funding from the capital markets.

US economic data mixed

This week’s data painted a mixed picture of the US economy. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, grew by 0.3% from April to May, the most rapid increase since 2006. Compared with a year earlier, prices rose by 1.5%. Producer prices – prices that wholesalers charge for the goods that they sell to retailers – rose 0.2% in May. The increase was stronger than had been expected but well below April’s 0.8% gain. Core producer prices rose 0.2%. The Census Bureau said that US housing starts rose 3.5% in May from an upwardly-revised April figure. Permits, an indicator of future construction, hit their highest level since December, rising 8.7%. By contrast, a survey from the National Association of Home Builders showed that confidence in the housing market fell to its lowest level in nine months. Initial claims for unemployment insurance improved in the week ending June 11 – initial claims eased by 16,000 to 414,000 from an upwardly revised 430,000. The Commerce Department also said that retail sales were 0.2% lower in May following April’s revised 0.3% rise. The May measure was the first decline in nearly a year as supply constraints - following Japan’s earthquake - curtailed sales of new cars. Industrial production, which rose by 0.1% in May, was also adversely impacted by Japan’s earthquake. Excluding autos, manufacturing output rose by 0.6% in May. Meanwhile, US business inventories rose 0.8% in April, well below March’s revised 1.3% gain as companies slowed their pace of restocking. Sales advanced just 0.1% compared with March’s 2.4%. Both inventories and sales were more than 10% above their levels of April 2010.

Japan limits extra earthquake assistance

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept the benchmark overnight rate in a range of between zero and 0.1% and left unchanged its ¥10 trillion asset-buying programme. Japan’s central bank maintained its view that the economy will return to a moderate recovery from the second half of the fiscal year through March 2012. The BoJ raised its monthly economic assessment for the first time since February, saying that there are some signs of a pick-up. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said that the Bank will make ¥500 billion in funds available to banks to undertake equity investments and to lend to companies as “Weakness has been observed in the financial positions of some firms, mainly small ones, since the earthquake”. The BoJ limited its extra assistance for the earthquake-hit economy to a $6 billion lending programme to help companies without real estate collateral.

Emerging market news

Reports and statistics this week showed persistent inflation in emerging economies. The Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates, by 0.25% to 7.5% following reports that inflation in May rose 9.1%, while wholesale price index inflation accelerated to 9.06% in the month. In South Korea, the Bank of Korea lifted rates by 0.25% to 3.25% as inflation remained steady at 4.1%, 0.1% above target. In Poland, May’s inflation rose 5% from a year earlier. (Last week Poland’s policymakers raised interest rates for a fourth time this year to 4.5%.) In Chile, core inflation in May was unchanged from the previous month at 5%. Chile’s central bank increased its key monetary policy rate by 0.25% to 5.25% (following 0.5% increases in each of the last three months.)

China’s CPI rose to its highest level in nearly three years in May, up 5.5% from a year earlier following a 5.3% increase in April. The central bank of the world’s second-biggest economy raised the proportion of deposits that banks must hold in reserve for the ninth time since October. The 0.5% increase took Chinese bank’s reserve requirement to a record 21.5%. Separate reports in China suggest that the economy is gently slowing. For instance, industrial output moderated to a 13.3% year-on-year increase in May, down from 13.4% in April. Retail sales in the month rose 16.9% from a year earlier, down from 17.1% in April. A leading indicator rose 0.2% in April, showing more moderate growth in China’s economic activity in coming months. China reported a trade surplus of $13.05bn in May, larger than April’s $11.4bn surplus but well below the $18-20bn that had been expected. Imports rose 28.4% from a year earlier, up from 21.8% in April while export growth slowed to 19.4%, down from a 29.9% increase the previous month. China’s residential property sales (in terms of total area sold) grew 17.7% in May from a year earlier after falling more than 10% year-on-year in April. Commentators noted that May’s rebound in sales was mainly due to a very low base in May 2010 when the first restrictions on housing sales aimed at slowing rapid price increases were introduced. Worsening credit conditions and the likelihood of a fall in transaction volumes led ratings agency Standard & Poor’s to downgrade its outlook for China’s property development sector to negative.

Company news

This week Tesco reported a 0.1% year-on-year fall in first quarter like-for-like sales, an improvement on the 0.7% decline suffered in the preceding quarter. The UK’s biggest retailer said that demand for electrical goods continued to suffer amid consumer nervousness about the state of the economy. Tesco’s share price fell slightly. Separately, ratings agency Moody’s placed BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole and Société Générale on review for a possible downgrade, citing the potential for “inconsistency” between the impact of a Greek default or restructuring and their current rating levels. (French banks are among Greece’s biggest creditors, with $53bn in overall net exposure to Greek private and public debt, according to the latest figures from the Bank for International Settlements.) The share prices of the three banks slid between 2.3% and 2.6%. Elsewhere, Russian phosphate fertiliser producer Phosagro said that it plans to sell a 10-15% stake to raise as much as $1bn from an initial public offering in Moscow and London.

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