Weekly Review of Global Markets

Im Folgenden stellt Ihnen Barings Asset Management einen Rückblick auf die globalen Märkte in der vergangenen Woche zur Verfügung. Erfahren Sie mehr zu den Wachstums-Zahlen in den USA, den Konsum-Zahlen in Deutschland, der britischen Industrie oder der Tokio Börse und weiteren Themen hier: Barings | 28.11.2011 09:24 Uhr
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* The Confederation of British Industry latest survey points to a contradiction in UK manufacturing orders 

* The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirms that the US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the third quarter of 2011 

* German economic growth up 0.5% due to rising domestic consumption

* The Tokyo Stock Exchange increases its bid for the Osaka Securities Exchange

* The The US Federal Deposit Insurance Commission reports that the financial health of the US banking sector continues to improve

UK manufacturers become more cautious

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported during the week that its latest survey of manufacturers in the UK found that 34% of respondents had experienced a contraction in orders in November, with just 15% experiencing a rise (a net balance of -19%). This was mainly the result of a fall in export orders, with 42% reporting a decline in orders from abroad, compared to 11% reporting a rise (a net balance of -31%). The CBI indicated that the UK’s manufacturing sector is likely to reduce production levels over the coming months.

Meanwhile, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted that the UK’s economy grew by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2011. The growth was driven by an expansion in output in the services sector, which rose by 0.6%. For the production industries and the construction sector, the corresponding figures were 0.4% and 0.2%. Household final consumption was unchanged. Separately, the ONS observed that business investment in the third quarter of 2011 was £30.2bn, 1.4% less than in the second quarter of 2011.

US economic data remains resilient

During the week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the US Department of Commerce reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) in the USA rose at an annual rate of 2.5% in the third quarter of 2011. In the second quarter of 2011, real GDP expanded by 1.7%. The latest increase ‘primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, non-residential fixed investment, exports and federal government spending.’ This was offset somewhat by higher imports and by the ongoing weakness of housing construction. The BEA also noted that the profitability of the corporate sector remains resilient, even if the rate of profit growth is slowing. Its preliminary estimates suggest that total corporate profits increased by US$39.8bn in the third quarter of 2011, after rising by US$61.2bn in the second quarter of 2011.

The published minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of 1-2 November contained few surprises. In relation to monetary policy action, FOMC ‘members noted that information received over the inter-meeting period pointed to somewhat stronger economic growth in the third quarter of 2011, partly reflecting a reversal of temporary factors that had depressed economic growth in the first half of the year.’ The FOMC’s members remained concerned about the softness of the US labour market. As noted previously, the FOMC decided to: keep the federal funds target range at 0.00-0.25%; extend the average maturity of the Federal Reserve’s portfolio of securities in accordance with ‘Operation Twist’; reinvest payments from agency bonds and agency Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) in agency MBS; roll over maturing Treasury securities and; confirm that the federal funds target is likely to remain at ‘exceptionally low’ levels until mid-2013. Charles Evans, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, argued for ‘additional policy accommodation’ and greater clarity about the conditions under which interest rates would be maintained at very low levels.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment rose by 5.3% to 64.1 in November. The index of consumer expectations advanced by 6.9% to 55.4, while the index of current conditions gained by 3.3% to 77.6. Relative to where they were in November 2010, the indices have fallen by 10.5%, 14.5% and 5.5% respectively. The compilers of the survey noted that it was too soon to determine what would be the impact on consumer sentiment of the failure of the ‘super committee’ to reach an agreement in relation to US government budget cuts. The compilers did, however, note that ‘the lack of an extension of the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits will have an immediate negative impact on consumers.’

Elsewhere, the US Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods slipped by 0.7%, to US$1.4bn in October. This followed a 1.5% decrease in September. However, excluding transportation equipment, new orders actually increased by 0.7% in October: without defence-related transactions, new orders rose by 0.2%. Inventories of manufactured durable goods expanded by 0.5%, or US$1.8bn, to US$367.2bn – a record high. The US Department of Labor noted that initial jobless claims in the week to November 19 amounted to 391,000. The four-week moving average fell marginally to 394,250, compared to 436,750 one year previous. These numbers are consistent with stabilisation of the labour market.

Eurozone PMI rises slightly

Markit’s Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index advanced from 46.5 in October to 47.2 in November. This indicates that the overall level of economic activity in the Eurozone continues to contract, but less rapidly than previously. This was driven by an improvement in the services sector. Manufacturing output dropped for the fourth consecutive month, with the rate of decline accelerating.

Germany’s Federal Statistics Office published provisional figures which showed that GDP in that country rose by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2011 relative to the second quarter of 2011. In addition, the growth in the second quarter of 2011 was revised upwards to 0.3%. Unlike previous quarters, the growth in GDP in the third quarter of 2011 was driven mainly by domestic demand. Investment was up 2.9% relative to the second quarter of 2011, while households and the government spent ‘markedly more on consumption’ than they had done in the previous quarter. Also noteworthy were the results of the latest survey of consumer confidence in Italy by Istat. The overall index advanced from 93.3 in October to 96.5 in November. Istat noted that ‘the improvement is mainly due to a widespread optimism particularly focused on the short term expectations, where confidence increased from 82.1 to 89.1.’ The indices for the current economic climate and the overall economic situation also improved.

Japan’s two largest exchanges merge

During the week, Tokyo Stock Exchange Group Inc. increased the amount it would pay for Osaka Securities Exchange Co. by 14% to ¥480,000 per share. The revised offer – which is a 23% premium to the price originally announced by Tokyo Stock Exchange in March this year – values the Osaka Exchange at around US$1.7bn. Tokyo Stock Exchange plans to buy between 50.0% and 66.7% of the outstanding stock of the Osaka Exchange: the intention is to form a merged group that will have four separate businesses – cash equities, derivatives, a regulatory unit and a clearing house. It is the latest development in a wave of mergers between exchanges that has taken place over recent months.

A director of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor’s (S&P) in Singapore noted in an interview that the public finances of Japan continue to deteriorate. This was seen as a hint that S&P may be moving to lower Japan’s sovereign rating from the current AA-. S&P has maintained a negative outlook for Japan since April this year.

Emerging market news

During the week, HSBC published its Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Index (PMI) for October. The PMI dropped from 51.0 in October to 48.0 in November, a 32-month low, and a level that points to a contraction in activity. Hongbin Qu, Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, suggested that the figures point to a slowing in industrial production growth to 11-12% year-on-year over coming months. However, ‘as inflation is likely to decelerate at a faster-than-expected pace, it will leave room for Beijing to step up selective easing measures, which should gradually filter through to keep China on-track for a soft-landing.’

Brazil’s statistics agency IGBE reported that its IPCA-15 Extended Consumer Price Index rose by 0.46% month-on-month in November. Relative to November 2010, the index has increased by 6.69%. In October, the corresponding numbers were 0.42% and 7.12% as inflationary pressures had been driven by higher prices for food and clothing. Overall, the data is consistent with a moderation of inflationary pressures in Brazil.

Elsewhere in Latin America, INEGI, the statistical agency of Mexico, noted that consumer prices in that country rose by 0.97% in the first half of November. The increase was mainly due to a removal of seasonal subsidies for electricity costs. In October, central bank Governor Agustín Carstens had indicated that inflationary pressures are likely to ease once these seasonal adjustments pass. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) noted that overall economic growth slipped from 5.1% in the June 2010 fiscal year to 1.8% in the June 2011 fiscal year. Political developments had resulted in significant declines in the tourism, manufacturing and construction sectors.

Company news

A consortium led by US private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) reached an agreement to buy a majority holding in Samson Investment, a privately owned oil and gas exploration company that is based in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The US$7.2bn deal is one of the largest leveraged buy-outs to be undertaken since the financial crisis.

The US Federal Deposit Insurance Commission (FDIC) reported that the commercial banks and savings institutions that it insures collectively posted profits of US$35.3bn in the third quarter of 2011 US$11.5bn more than in the third quarter of 2011. The FDIC noted that ‘lower provisions for loan losses were responsible for most of the year-over-year improvement in earnings.’ Loss provisions in Q3 of 2011 amounted to US$18.6bn – or about half of those of the previous corresponding figure. The FDIC’s figures confirm that the steady recovery in the financial position of the US banking system continues.

Gilead Sciences Inc., a leading maker of drugs that treat HIV, announced the purchase of Pharmasset, an experimental drugmaker that, as yet, does not actually have any products in the market, for US$11bn. Pharmasset is developing a treatment for Hepatitis C that is taken orally: currently treatment is usually given by way of a series of injections.

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