Anzeichen für Stärkung der Märkte

Natixis Global Associates stellt Ihnen die Global Network News zum Thema "Despite recent volatility, signs point to markets strengthening long term" zur Verfügung. Darin enthalten sind die Meinungen eines Strategen, eines Ökonomen und eines Managers. Natixis Investment Managers | 01.07.2010 10:30 Uhr
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Despite recent volatility, signs point to markets strengthening long term

Coming into 2010, a big question for investors was, would the global economy be able to stand on its own legs and not have to rely on government spending and inventory behavior to prop it up. While we have seen some optimistic signs, concerns still remain – as evidenced by recent market volatility. Given this environment, are we looking at a longer recovery period? In particular, why are today´s global markets so worrisome and what can be expected through the summer and fall?

For answers to these questions, we asked investment experts from the Natixis Global Asset Management group to share their perspectives.

IN THIS ISSUE:

RICHARD SKAGGS, Loomis, Sayles & Company
Says equity markets will advance when investors begin to look ahead and not back

PHILIPPE WAECHTER, Natixis Asset Management
Believes sovereign debt issues need to be managed carefully, going slower in order to favor growth

KATHLEEN GAFFNEY, Loomis, Sayles & Company
Predicts continued volatility in stocks and other risky assets until the sovereign crisis is resolved


RICHARD SKAGGSEquity StrategistLoomis, Sayles & Company

According to Skaggs, equity markets are likely to move forward when investors get over their fears about Europe and when they see signs that China´s economic slowdown has bottomed out. "Remember, we aren´t cutting economic growth forecasts or earnings estimates now but we are going to muddle through this phase and should have a decent year-end rally in stocks," he said.

Skaggs goes on to say that investors began 2010 with leading equity indices up more than 60% from the lows of March 2009. "While equities declined moderately into early February, the S&P 500 rose over 15% from the February low to the April high, leading investors to believe the promise of another strong year for stocks was at hand," he said. "However concerns over a slowing of the Chinese economy, coupled with serious concerns over the ability of several European nations, particularly Greece, to meet sovereign debt obligations, have been catalysts for a significant correction in global equities."

Looking ahead, macro concerns are currently trumping an excellent corporate earnings picture among U.S. companies, says Skaggs. "It´s important to focus on the fact that while stocks have pulled back, most analysts have been raising earnings estimates for 2010 and 2011, bringing the valuations of stocks down quickly, to levels which appear quite attractive assuming the recovery continues," he said. "Loomis is forecasting GDP growth of 3.3% for 2010 and 2.9% in 2011, which, if realized, should allow many of the favorable earnings projections to be achieved."

Assuming that Europe´s fundamental fears can be addressed, it´s likely the global recovery in equities will resume as well, according to Skaggs. "It is important to recognize just how far stocks have risen from the March 2009 lows," he said. "Investors need time to digest these large gains before setting up for a new advance. Equity markets cannot stay in a condition of fear indefinitely. Valuations are supportive for a move back to the April highs and beyond as we look forward to another year of earnings growth in 2011. This pullback should provide one of the better buying opportunities investors have seen since this bull market began early last year."


PHILIPPE WAECHTERChief EconomistNatixis Asset Management

The Paris-based Waechter says that Europe´s debt remains a large concern. "In Spain, Ireland or Portugal, growth prospects are low," he said. "This situation leads to a potentially fragile banking sector. Higher default rates will likely weaken banks."

The only way to improve the private sector is through growth and employment, according to Waechter, who believes this issue has to be managed very carefully, and not too fast. "Every government has to clearly define a strategy to improve public finance and not only fiscal deficits," said Waechter, who day to day keeps close tabs on the European markets. "European nations can improve their fiscal deficit but in three years time, their public debt should be higher and, as a result, will not be more manageable. This means that we have to go slower in order to favor growth."

Looking at today´s markets, Waechter says emerging countries in Asia and South America are providing strong global growth opportunities. "What we are seeing is that emerging countries wish to make their growth more sustainable. That´s new and it´s changing the global dynamics," he said. "These countries, like Brazil, now have a middle class. This creates a new framework and new regulation and this should increase the duration of market cycles."

Waechter says China´s currency, the yuan, is also becoming a new exchange rate mechanism for sustainable growth. "This will likely reduce inflation pressures and should favor growth for other countries," he said. "Nevertheless this picture is not as nice as it could be. We saw in India and Brazil that inflation rates were too high, leading to more severe monetary policies. We expect that this new stance in monetary policy will not increase growth risks."

In industrialized countries, the situation is more complicated, says Waechter. "They are facing a cyclical recovery which is positive for markets but a problem on the balance sheets," he said. "Government indebtedness has increased dramatically during the last couple of years and nobody knows exactly how to manage it. In Europe, governments want to respond quickly and they hope to reduce their budget deficits significantly. In addition, they want to be under the 3% threshold of GDP by 2013. But there is still no real target on debt."


KATHLEEN GAFFNEYMultisector Bond ManagerLoomis, Sayles & Company

Gaffney expects to see continued volatility in stocks and other risky assets until the sovereign debt crisis is resolved. "The problem isn´t just Greece, it´s all of the so-called PIIGS," said Gaffney, referring to the indebted countries of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. "The euro zone isn´t functioning as it should. You have to restructure debt so these countries can pay it off."

Now the European banks that overextended credit to the PIIGS will have to restructure. This will entail trimming interest rates on existing bonds and loans, reducing the amounts owed, or lengthening repayment periods. In addition, Gaffney says, most of the governments in question will have to make more unpopular spending cuts, which could lead to social unrest.

Once the crisis is over, she believes emerging markets will continue to power growth for the rest of the world. Growth in the developed world should stay sluggish, with a possibility that Europe will fall into another recession, the dreaded double-dip downturn.

Gaffney is optimistic about stocks for the longer term. "It will likely be painful in the short run to own equities, but I wouldn´t sell now," she said.

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