Russland Aktien als Ertrags-Quellen

Im Folgenden analysiert Igor Danilenko, Lead portfolio manager for high conviction equity strategies - TKB BNP Paribas Investment Partners, den russischen Aktienmarkt und dessen Chancen. BNP Paribas Asset Management | 25.07.2012 16:15 Uhr
Archiv-Beitrag: Dieser Artikel ist älter als ein Jahr.
Russian equities: Sources of return in a range-bound market

We believe the russian equity market will be volatile but range-bound in the near term due to external factors and investors could look at high dividend stocks, structural growth opportunities or companies with unique competitive advantages (“rough diamonds”) for attractive total returns, using the insight of local specialists.

Investors’ current concerns are mainly over the eurozone and Chinese growth but, as the year goes on, should include the US economy and US debt ceiling negotiations. This could be offset by a relatively strong macroeconomic performance in russia, allowing selected stocks to do relatively well. So far this year, we have already seen good growth, mainly driven by local consumption and investments.

In the January-May period, GDP grew by an estimated 4.5% YoY, retail sales rose by 7.2% YoY and investments gained 12.1% YoY. Local consumption continues to grow strongly, mainly on the back of military, police and government sector salaries increasing in real terms and a fall in unemployment.

High dividend yields

Looking for companies with expected strong free cash flow and a good capital expenditure discipline, we find them mainly among the oil and gas producers. Examples would include Surgutneftegas preferred stock, TNK-BP and Tatneft preferred shares with an expected dividend yield of more than 10%. Even in this relatively well-researched sector, it is possible to benefit from quality stock picking. The graph shows that companies with high quality management and high dividends do outperform russian market heavyweights (Gazprom and Lukoil account for 40% of the MSCI russia 10/40).

After ex-div dates (normally in April and May), high-dividend stocks usually underperform the market as they fall by more than the dividend. valuations typically recover after several months as the market starts to price in next year’s dividends. It is possible to find attractive structural growth opportunities as well, especially when valuations drop substantially below fair value in a risk-off market. We look for companies in sectors with low levels of consolidation and low goods/services penetration. Such companies should have high-quality management with a successful track record, efficient capital expenditure practices, growth potential or visible earnings growth above the sector average and, preferably, strong shareholders. Often the russian market gives little credit to future growth and prices factor earnings growth only close to the year-end. There can be good opportunities to benefit from this inefficiency, provided fundamental earnings estimates are accurate.

One of the most interesting opportunities, in our view, is Globaltrans. The largest private rail freight operator in russia is expected to grow its market share on the back of investments in modern rolling stock as well as mergers and acquisitions. Over the next four years, its rolling stock is expected to rise by 89%, with CAGr EBITDA growing by 18%.

Rough diamonds

Even in the low growth oil and gas sector, “rough diamonds” can be found. One is volga Gas (junior gas producer) which is expected to treble output in the next 12 months. We think that our high expectations are supported by the fact that Baring vostok Private Equity fund, which seeks long-term investment growth, is the largest shareholder, with 59%.

It can be worth looking at companies with unique competitive advantages such as low-cost reserves. A good example is Phosagro, one of the largest producers of phosphate fertilisers. Its high-quality reserves should help protect profit margins against cost inflation and are large enough to ensure production for the next 50 years.

There are opportunities for good returns in a range-bound russian market for investors, provided they tap the local knowledge and insight of on-the-ground specialists.
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